Bìznes Inform (Apr 2018)
The Statistical Hypotheses on Randomness of Factor Relations and Interrelations of Socio-Economic Processes
Abstract
The models of factor relations and interrelations of socio-economic processes are based on the corresponding theoretical and economic provisions and hypotheses. In the presence of statistical data, analytical or econometric models (model systems) can be constructed. Checking of adequacy of the models commonly uses the Fisher Criterion, determination coefficient and other instruments. The econometric approach presupposes the presence of unaccounted factors in the model, which are assumed to be coincidental with certain law of distribution. The hypothesis of presence/absence of randomness in the interaction of factors is not put forward as such. The article considers the possibility of applying the econometric approach in general. The criteria for assessing the presence of the factor of randomness of relations and interrelations of time series have been developed. The method of certain intervals for estimation of character of relations and interrelations between the factors that characterize socio-economic processes is proposed. Simulation experiments confirming the capacity of the method of evaluating the action of the random factor in socio-economic processes were carried out. Prospect for further researches would be development of a common methodology for econometric modeling, taking into consideration the nature of interrelations and relations between factors.
