Frequency prediction of a post-disturbance power system using a hybrid ARIMA and DBN model

Abstract

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The online prediction of power system dynamic frequency helps to guide the choice of control measures quickly and accurately after a disturbance, and this then ensures the reliable and stable operations of a power system. However, the prediction performance of the traditional single model is not accurate enough, and the prediction method cannot reflect the dynamic mechanism of the power system. To address these challenges, based on the analysis of the mechanism of the dynamic operation of a power system, a dynamic frequency online prediction method using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the deep belief network (DBN) is proposed in this paper. First, according to the mechanism of the dynamic operation of a power system, the dynamic frequency can be regarded as having two stages after the disturbance occurs. In the first stage, the frequency changes monotonously in the short term, which is predicted by the ARIMA model. Furthermore, the second stage is an oscillation phase with changing amplitude, which is predicted by the DBN. The calibration process is used to combine the two predicted results. Second, the three metrics including the frequency nadir (fnadir), the quasi-steady state frequency (fss), and the frequency curve obtained through the prediction are analyzed to measure the accuracy of the prediction results. Finally, to verify the accuracy of the proposed model, the IEEE 10-generator 39-bus benchmark system is used for verification.

Keywords

• frequency prediction
• autoregressive integrated moving average model
• deep belief network
• frequency nadir
• rate of change of frequency (ROCOF)