Information content and consensus effect of fiscal plans

Abstract

This paper investigated the extent to which fiscal plans provide novel information to investors and induce consensus over governments’ fiscal forecasts. Based on the mandatory disclosure requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact, we documented that fiscal plans are generally informative, but investors interpret their content differently. We further showed that, while fiscal plans that foresee spending cuts during downturns have substantial information content, they cause opinion divergence. Although these findings are consistent with recent evidence on the contractionary and uncertain effects of procyclical fiscal policy during recessions, they cast doubt on governments’ ability to anchor fiscal expectations in these periods.

Keywords

• Fiscal policy
• Treatment effect model
• Event studies
• Stock returns
• Trading volume