Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Flash Floods in China

Abstract

Accurately assessing the risk of flash floods is a fundamental prerequisite for defending against flash flood disasters. The existing methods for assessing flash flood risk are constrained by unclear key factors and challenges in elucidating disaster mechanisms, resulting in less-than-ideal early warning effectiveness. This article is based on official statistics of flash flood disaster data from 2017 to 2021. It selects eight categories of driving factors influencing flash floods, such as rainfall, underlying surface conditions, and human activities. Subsequently, a geographical detector is utilized to analyze the explanatory power of each driving factor in flash flood disasters, quantifying the contribution of each factor to the initiation of flash flood; the flash flood potential index (FFPI) was introduced to assess the risk of flash flood disasters in China, leading to the construction of a comprehensive assessment framework for flash flood risk. The results indicate that (1) Flash floods are generally triggered by multiple factors, with rainfall being the most influential factor, directly causing flash floods. Soil type is the second most influential factor, and the combined effects of multiple factors intensify the risk of flash floods. (2) The southeastern, southern, and southwestern regions of China are considered high-risk areas for flash floods, with a high danger level, whereas the northwestern, northern, and northeastern plain regions exhibit a lower danger level. The above research results provide reference and guidance for the prevention and control of flash flood disasters.

Keywords

• flash flood disaster
• driving factors
• risk assessment
• geodetector
• FFPI