Identification of shrinking cities in Northeast China and spatiotemporal evolution of construction land expansion

Abstract

[Objective] Expansion of construction land is a direct manifestation of urbanization in geographical space. Analyzing the characteristics of the spatial and temporal changes of construction land in shrinking cities is an important reference for optimizing the allocation of land resources in shrinking cities. [Methods] This study constructed a multi-indicator model with “one subject, two subsets, and three dimensions” to identify shrinking cities in Northeast China in 2000-2020. On this basis, it used the common edge measure method and PLUS model to explore the characteristics, patterns, and driving mechanisms of construction land expansion in shrinking cities in Northeast China during the study period. [Results] (1) The Northeast area experienced a significant increase in the number and extent of shrinking cities between 2010 and 2020. From 2000 to 2010, only four demographically and one demographically-economically shrinking cities were identified. From 2010-2020, the region identified three demographically-economically, one demographic-vitality, and 17 full-dimensional shrinking cities. Spatially, it was characterized by a greater presence in the eastern and northern regions than in the western and southern regions. (2) More than 70.59% of the shrinking cities’ construction land showed a continuous growth trend from 2010 to 2020. Among these cities, those with the fastest expansion rate were mostly centered in the Harbin-Dalian economic belt. (3) The proportion of infill expansion of new construction land in shrinking cities has gradually increased, and the pattern of expansion has tended to agglomerate from diffusion. (4) The evolution of construction land in shrinking cities is a comprehensive result of the interaction of the natural environment, population-economic and infrastructure factors, and the core driving factors of shrinking cities across various study periods and types have both commonality and uniqueness. [Conclusion] Of the shrinking cities in Northeast China, 70% showed the paradoxical development pattern of continued expansion of construction land. We recommend that shrinking cities should form a reasonable order of construction land expansion, fully explore the potential for utilizing the cities’ stock of construction land, and ultimately achieve “smart growth” in shrinking cities.

Keywords

• shrinking city|construction land expansion|spatiotemporal characteristics|recognition model|driving factors|northeast china