Effects of Assimilating Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer and FY-3D MWTS-2/MWHS-2 Data in Precipitation Forecasting

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of the joint assimilation of ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) and FY-3D microwave sounder (MWTS-2/MWHS-2) observations on the analyses and forecasts for precipitation forecast. Based on the weather research and forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system, four experiments are conducted in this study, concerning a heavy precipitation event in Beijing on 2 July 2021, and 10-day batch experiments were also conducted. The key study findings include the following: (1) Both ground-based microwave radiometer and MWTS-2/MWHS-2 data contribute to improvements in the initial fields of the model, leading to appropriate adjustments in the thermal structure of the model. (2) The forecast fields of the experiments assimilating ground-based microwave radiometer and MWTS-2/MWHS-2 data show temperature and humidity performances closer to the true fields compared with the control experiment. (3) Separate assimilation of two types of microwave radiometer data can improve precipitation forecasts, while joint assimilation provides the most accurate forecasts among all the experiments. In the single-case, compared with the control experiment, the individual and combined assimilation of MWR and MWTS-2/MWHS-2 improves the six-hour cumulative precipitation threat score (TS) at the 25 mm level by 57.1%, 28.9%, and 38.2%, respectively. The combined assimilation also improves the scores at the 50 mm level by 54.4%, whereas individual assimilations show a decrease in performance. In the batch experiments, the MWR_FY experiment’s TS of 24 h precipitation forecast improves 28.5% at 10 mm and 330% at 25 mm based on the CTRL.

Keywords

• FY-3D MWTS-2/MWHS-2
• ground-based microwave radiometer
• data assimilation