Біоекономіка та аграрний бізнес (Dec 2019)
Methodical application of AGMEMOD model for formation of market equality on the market of grain
Abstract
Nowadays the perspectives of the grain market are most connected with price formation in the world markets. It is rather difficult to predict the world prices over the long run though it is possible to allow certain assumptions concerning their growth. The regularities of price change dynamics are unacceptable for a full-scale reference point in forecasts during previous years, given that the agrarian sector, bulk customers experience a lack of financial resources today. As a basis of such a tool, it was taken an economic model of predictive appraisal of agrarian sector development and the analysis of the impact of agrarian policy - the AGMEMOD model. The AGMEMOD model for Ukraine includes three main units of modeling: database, the specification of model and presumption of modeling. The database includes historical data on the prices, production, use, import and export of products which are included in the model. The given version of the model includes the following products: wheat, barley, corn, oat, rye, rapeseeds, oil and products of secondary processing of oil-bearing plants on animal feedstuff, sunflower seeds, oil, soybeans, beef, pork, mutton, poultry, milk and dairy products and eggs. The results of modeling demonstrate that the influence of an effective regulation at the level of a household on the agricultural sector is not extraordinary. However, there are quite a lot of improvements, especially on an increase in the production of grain crops in general. As for grain crops, an effective regulation improves the growth of the indicators of production, consumption, import, and export. Nowadays the model of general balance is characterized by a global coverage and models the development of all branches of economy of the countries considered and also includes relations and feedback between the sectors and models bilateral traffic flows between the countries. AGMEMOD represents the model of a partial balance which combines several analytical approaches, it assesses future consequences of reforms of policy in the field of agriculture in the EU countries and several countries which are not a part of the EU. The values of the indicators are estimated annually, namely, it includes the parameters of the main functions such as planting acreage, crop yield, consumption, and others.
