Does the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affect the poor? Evidence from a six-country survey

Abstract

Purpose – The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought havoc on economies around the world. The purpose of this study is to learn about the distributional impacts of the pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – The authors contribute new theoretical and empirical evidence on the distributional impacts of the pandemic on different income groups in a multicountry setting. The authors analyze rich individual-level survey data covering 6,082 respondents from China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. The results are robust to various econometric models, including ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and ordered probit models with country-fixed effects. Findings – The authors find that while the outbreak has no impact on household income losses, it results in a 63% reduction in the expected own labor income for the second-poorest income quintile. The pandemic impacts are most noticeable for savings, with all the four poorer income quintiles suffering reduced savings ranging between 5 and 7% compared to the richest income quintile. The poor are also less likely to change their behaviors regarding immediate prevention measures against COVID-19 and healthy activities. The authors also found countries to exhibit heterogeneous impacts. Social implications – Designing tailor-made social protection and health policies to support the poorer income groups in richer and poorer countries can generate multiple positive impacts that help minimize the negative and inequality-enhancing pandemic consequences. These findings are relevant not only for COVID-19 but also for future pandemics. Originality/value – The authors theoretically and empirically investigate the impacts of the pandemic on poorer income groups, while previous studies mostly offer empirical analyses and focus on other sociodemographic factors. The authors offer a new multicountry analysis of several prevention measures against COVID-19 and specific health activities.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Poverty
• Income quintiles
• Behavior changes