Development and Validation of Nomograms to Assess Risk Factors and Overall Survival Prediction for Lung Metastasis in Young Patients with Osteosarcoma: A SEER-Based Study

Abstract

Background. To establish two nomograms to quantify the diagnostic factors of lung metastasis (LM) and their role in assessing prognosis in young patients with LM osteosarcoma. Methods. A total of 618 osteosarcoma young patients from 2010 to 2015 were included from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Another 131 patients with osteosarcoma from local hospitals were also collected as an external validation set. Patients were randomized into training sets (n = 434) and validation sets (n = 184) with a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factor for LM and were used to construct the nomogram. Risk variables for the overall survival rate of patients with LM were evaluated by Cox regression. Another nomogram was also constructed to predict survival rates. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and retrospective research on 131 osteosarcoma young patients from 2010 to 2019 at three local hospitals. Results. There were 114 (18.45%) patients diagnosed as LM at initial diagnosis. The multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that T stage, N stage, and bone metastasis were independent risk factors for LM in newly diagnosed young osteosarcoma patients (P<0.001). The ROC analysis revealed that area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.751, 0.821, and 0.735 in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set, respectively, indicating good predictive discrimination. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis suggested that age, surgery, chemotherapy, primary site, and bone metastasis were prognostic factors for young osteosarcoma patients with LM. The time-dependent ROC curves showed that the AUCs for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 0.817, 0.792, and 0.815 in the training set and 0.772, 0.807, and 0.804 in the internal validation set, respectively. As for the external validation set, the AUCs for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 0.787, 0.818, and 0.717. Conclusions. The nomograms can help clinicians strengthen their personal decision-making and can improve the prognosis of osteosarcoma patients.