Wildfire Trend Analysis over the Contiguous United States Using Remote Sensing Observations

Abstract

Understanding the evolution of wildfire regimes throughout the United States (US) is crucial in the preparation, mitigation, and planning for national wildfires. Recent wildfire trajectories demonstrating an increase in both frequency and size across the US have made documenting the changes in wildfire regimes a topic of growing importance. While previous studies have examined wildfire regimes using ecoregions, this study analyzes wildfire regimes through the Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) regions across the Contiguous US over 34 years, 1984–2017. GACCs are geopolitical boundaries designed by wildfire agencies to promote an efficient way to distribute resources during emergencies such as wildfires. Wildfire observations originate from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database which records large fire events that are 1000(500) acres or greater in the Western (Eastern) US. Using GACCs and MTBS data, this study examines wildfire regimes across the Contiguous US through the following three parameters: total burned area, frequency, and average burned area. This study characterizes the trend direction of the wildfire parameters and which are statistically significant. Results demonstrate that most GACC regions display statistically significant trends, including wildfire regimes that are beyond the Western US (e.g., Southern GACC). The Northwest and Southwest GACCs demonstrate statistically significant positive trends in every parameter observed. The California and Great Basin GACCs demonstrate statistically significant positive trends in the average burned area. The Eastern GACC is the only region to not display any significant trends. Determining significant wildfire regimes and their trend direction can help wildfire agencies to minimize the negative impacts on the environment, society, and economy.

Keywords

• geographic area coordination centers
• MTBS
• remote sensing
• trends
• wildfires