Flight Delay Regression Prediction Model Based on Att-Conv-LSTM

Abstract

Accurate prediction results can provide an excellent reference value for the prevention of large-scale flight delays. Most of the currently available regression prediction algorithms use a single time series network to extract features, with less consideration of the spatial dimensional information contained in the data. Aiming at the above problem, a flight delay prediction method based on Att-Conv-LSTM is proposed. First, in order to fully extract both temporal and spatial information contained in the dataset, the long short-term memory network is used for getting time characteristics, and a convolutional neural network is adopted for obtaining spatial features. Then, the attention mechanism module is added to improve the iteration efficiency of the network. Experimental results show that the prediction error of the Conv-LSTM model is reduced by 11.41 percent compared with the single LSTM, and the prediction error of the Att-Conv-LSTM model is reduced by 10.83 percent compared with the Conv-LSTM. It is proven that considering spatio-temporal characteristics can obtain more accurate prediction results in the flight delay problem, and the attention mechanism module can also effectively improve the model performance.

Keywords

• flight delay prediction
• deep learning
• spatio-temporal characteristics
• attention mechanism