Statistical analysis of air temperature changes according to long-term observations of the V. A.MikhelsonMeteorological Observatory of RSAU – MTAA

Abstract

Introduction. The purpose of the study is to assess the dynamics of changes in air temperature indicators and its impact on agronomic systems, based on long-term observations of the V. A. Mikhelson Meteorological Observatory of RSAU – MTAA. Materials and Methods. Using the Mathcad program, graphs of changes in average annual temperatures were constructed using a third-order approximation polynomial, graphs of the theoretical normal density distribution and normal temperature distribution function, as well as graphs of intra-annual temperature distribution for 30 years. Research results and Discussion. The values of the relative error of average annual temperatures were calculated, the normal distribution of average annual temperatures was checked using the Pearson criterion, after which the probability of deviation of the empirical hours falling into intervals from the theoretical hours was found. Conclusion. As a result of the research, a significant increase in average annual air temperature was established against the background of a general reduction in the duration of the cold period. Increase in temperature over the period 1961–1990 amounted to 0.9 °C, which is significantly higher than the average values for the globe. The results of the study reflect the general trend of warming in the context of global climate change and can be used to improve the forecasting of weather conditions, as well as to optimize technological processes in crop production.

Keywords

• air temperature
• operational climate norm
• historical climate norm
• intra-annual temperature distribution
• distribution function of average annual temperatures