Management of Risk in Scientific Research [In Bulgarian]

Abstract

The paper discusses the nature of scientific discovery and proposes an application of the barbell methods as risk management strategy on the place of current policies for guided (teleological) investigation. Scientific discovery cannot be predicted, planned for or controlled. The nature of discovery is unknowable, with predominant role of chance in it, the probability for a researcher to make breakthrough in his or her life is equal at any age and funding successful scientist does not increase substantially their chance for new discoveries. Probability distributions in intellectual and creative work such as scientific research are very different from those in manufacture and mass production that requires redesign of policies for its funding, assessment, and development.

Keywords

• scientific research
• philosophy of science
• risk management
• history of science
• mathematics