Simulation method of stratigraphic uncertainty using a boundary model and generalized coupled Markov chain model

Abstract

Stratigraphic uncertainty has a significant impact on the performance evaluation of geotechnical structures, and it is important for engineering practice to accurately characterize the uncertainty. Hence, an effective simulation method of geological uncertainty is proposed. In the framework of probability, the boundary model and the generalized coupled Markov chain model are coupled to make full use of their advantages. First, the parameters of the boundary model are identified by the Bayes method, and then the boundary of the rock-soil material is simulated by a conditional random field. Then, the boundary model simulation results are used as background information in the generalized coupled Markov chain model to realize the coupling of the two models. Finally, taking a construction site in Hong Kong as an example, the simulation results of stratigraphic uncertainties for three different models are compared, and the advantages of the combination model proposed in this paper are clarified. The effects of the number and location of boreholes on the stratigraphic uncertainty simulation are discussed. The results show that compared with the boundary model and the generalized coupled Markov chain model, the coupling model can not only simulate the complicated stratum distribution but also consider the spatial distribution trend of the boundary and effectively avoid the geological anomaly phenomenon. The borehole layout scheme has a great impact on the stratigraphic uncertainty and its realization.

Keywords

• stratigraphic uncertainty
• random field
• generalized coupled markov chain
• uncertainty
• boundary model