Hazard and seismic risk of the Southern Cone

Abstract

With the objective of determining the catastrophic risk profile of Chile and Argentina, a seismic risk assessment following a probabilistic approach was conducted. A regional hazard model was defined based on the characterization of the subduction process, the localized intraplate fault systems, an up-to-date seismological catalog and appropriate spectral attenuation functions; this resulted in curves, maps and a collection of stochastically generated events. The exposure was modeled using an approximate representation of exposed assets (proxi) based on national socioeconomic indicators, which allowed us to obtain replacement values for buildings and infrastructure, as well as for the main economic sectors of the countries. Asset vulnerability was defined based on vulnerability functions appropriate to each type of infrastructure. The risk was calculated in a totally probabilistic manner in terms of the loss exceedance curve and the geographical distribution of the average annual loss, both for Chile and Argentina individually and for various portfolios in each case. Finally, a detailed evaluation of the seismic risk of the city of Mendoza, including the seismic microzonation of the city and the detailed cadastre, is presented, which resulted in an evaluation with a building-by-building resolution for the whole city.

Keywords

• amenaza, riesgo, vulnerabilidad, evaluación del riesgo sísmico