Statistical Model of Ship Delays on the Fairway in Terms of Restrictions Resulting from the Port Regulations: Case Study of Świnoujście-Szczecin Fairway

Abstract

The article describes a study of ship delays on the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway observed by the VTS operator. The research has led to an understanding of the factors that affect delays of ships calling at the ports of Szczecin and Police, as well as the possibilities of predicting and preventing these delays. This article presents the results of the study on the traffic intensity on the investigated waterway and the process of identifying the port regulation that causes the most frequent delays. Based on the obtained results from the statistical analysis and from using multiple regression, a statistical model has been developed that has the ability to estimate expected delays. Additionally, the model has been expanded to calculate financial losses resulting from delays, taking into account the daily cost of maintaining the studied ships. The study took place during ongoing project “Modernization of the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway to a depth of 12.5 m” but does not include delays resulting from this project.

Keywords

• vessel traffic
• simulation model
• vessels’ delays
• regression analysis