Time to Critical Condition in Emergency Services

Abstract

Providing uninterrupted response service is of paramount importance for emergency medical services, regardless of the operating scenario. Thus, reliable estimates of the time to the critical condition, under which there will be no available servers to respond to the next incoming call, become very useful measures of the system’s performance. In this contribution, we develop a key performance indicator by providing an explicit formula for the average time to the shortage condition. Our analytical expression for this average time is a function of the number of parallel servers and the inter-arrival and service times. We assume exponential distributions of times in our analytical expression, but for evaluating the mean first-passage time to the critical condition under more realistic scenarios, we validate our result through exhaustive simulations with lognormal service time distributions. For this task, we have implemented a simulator in R. Our results indicate that our analytical formula is an acceptable approximation under any situation of practical interest.

Keywords

• first-passage time
• Markov chain
• queueing theory
• simulation
• OR in health services
• KPI