Assembling and Customizing Multiple Fire Weather Forecasts for Burn Probability and Other Fire Management Applications in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Weather forecasts are needed in fire management to support risk-based decision-making that considers both the probability of an outcome and its potential impact. These decisions are complicated by the large amount of uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the decision, such as weather forecasts. Wildland fires in Ontario, Canada can burn and actively spread for days, weeks, or even months, or be naturally limited or extinguished by rain. Conventional fire weather forecasts have typically been a single scenario for a period of one to five days. These forecasts have two limitations: they are not long enough to inform some fire management decisions, and they do not convey any uncertainty to inform risk-based decision-making. We present an overview of a method for the assembly and customization of forecasts that (1) combines short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of different types, (2) calculates Fire Weather Indices and Fire Behaviour Predictions, including modelling seasonal weather station start-up and shutdown, (3) resolves differing spatial resolutions, and (4) communicates forecasts. It is used for burn probability modelling and other fire management applications.

Keywords

• analogue forecast
• decision support
• ensemble
• forest fire
• risk management
• wildfire