Assembling and Customizing Multiple Fire Weather Forecasts for Burn Probability and Other Fire Management Applications in Ontario, Canada
Den Boychuk,
Colin B. McFayden,
Jordan Evens,
Jerry Shields,
Aaron Stacey,
Douglas G. Woolford,
Mike Wotton,
Dan Johnston,
Dan Leonard,
Darren McLarty
Affiliations
Den Boychuk
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 400–70 Foster Drive, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada
Colin B. McFayden
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, Dryden Fire Management Headquarters, P.O. Box 850, Dryden, ON P8N 2Z5, Canada
Jordan Evens
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 400–70 Foster Drive, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada
Jerry Shields
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 400–70 Foster Drive, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada
Aaron Stacey
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 300 Water Street, 1st Floor, South Tower, Peterborough, ON K9J 3C7, Canada
Douglas G. Woolford
Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada
Mike Wotton
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S, Canada
Dan Johnston
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 400–70 Foster Drive, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada
Dan Leonard
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, 6150 Skyline Drive, Garson, ON P3L 1K2, Canada
Darren McLarty
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Services, Dryden Fire Management Headquarters, P.O. Box 850, Dryden, ON P8N 2Z5, Canada
Weather forecasts are needed in fire management to support risk-based decision-making that considers both the probability of an outcome and its potential impact. These decisions are complicated by the large amount of uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the decision, such as weather forecasts. Wildland fires in Ontario, Canada can burn and actively spread for days, weeks, or even months, or be naturally limited or extinguished by rain. Conventional fire weather forecasts have typically been a single scenario for a period of one to five days. These forecasts have two limitations: they are not long enough to inform some fire management decisions, and they do not convey any uncertainty to inform risk-based decision-making. We present an overview of a method for the assembly and customization of forecasts that (1) combines short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of different types, (2) calculates Fire Weather Indices and Fire Behaviour Predictions, including modelling seasonal weather station start-up and shutdown, (3) resolves differing spatial resolutions, and (4) communicates forecasts. It is used for burn probability modelling and other fire management applications.
