Assessing the impact of climate change in the wheat–maize cropping system across the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain under future climate scenarios

Abstract

General circulation models suggest that changes in climatic parameters will have an effect on food production globally. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of climate change on wheat–maize rotation areas in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (3H Plain). The projections generated suggest an increase in precipitation during the wheat growth period (WGP) by 1.33–4.16% (2.6–8.3 mm) and 3.13–8.16% (6.2–18.0 mm) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, relative to the base period (1981–2016). Across the 3H Plain, the mean temperature during the WGP is projected to increase between 1.17–1.21 and 1.17–1.28 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The projections during the maize growth period (MGP) indicate an increase in the temperature between 1.29–1.92 and 1.84–2.08 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. During the MGP, precipitation is also projected to increase by 7.41–9.73% (33.6–45.1 mm) and 6.63–14.78% (29.8–72.7 mm) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. For each 1% change in climatic factors, the comprehensive effect on yield was projected to be 0.65 and 0.58% for wheat and −1.08 and −1.11% for maize, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, when other factors were kept constant. The change in water resources will be insignificant during the WGP and more pronounced during the MGP. The study provides an overview of changes in meteorological parameters and scientific evidence for climate change adaptation in the wheat–maize cropping system. HIGHLIGHTS The temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for both winter wheat and summer maize.; The change in climate variables is projected to be beneficial for wheat yield under both emission scenarios with the highest increase in Shandong and parts of Henan.; The summer maize yields are estimated to decrease due to increased temperature, particularly in the north 3H region.;

Keywords

• climate change
• huang–huai–hai plain
• statistical downscaling
• summer maize
• winter wheat
• yield