Machine learning accurately predicts the multivariate performance phenotype from morphology in lizards

Abstract

Completing the genotype-to-phenotype map requires rigorous measurement of the entire multivariate organismal phenotype. However, phenotyping on a large scale is not feasible for many kinds of traits, resulting in missing data that can also cause problems for comparative analyses and the assessment of evolutionary trends across species. Measuring the multivariate performance phenotype is especially logistically challenging, and our ability to predict several performance traits from a given morphology is consequently poor. We developed a machine learning model to accurately estimate multivariate performance data from morphology alone by training it on a dataset containing performance and morphology data from 68 lizard species. Our final, stacked model predicts missing performance data accurately at the level of the individual from simple morphological measures. This model performed exceptionally well, even for performance traits that were missing values for >90% of the sampled individuals. Furthermore, incorporating phylogeny did not improve model fit, indicating that the phenotypic data alone preserved sufficient information to predict the performance based on morphological information. This approach can both significantly increase our understanding of performance evolution and act as a bridge to incorporate performance into future work on phenomics.