Machine Learning in Medical Triage: A Predictive Model for Emergency Department Disposition

Abstract

The study explores the application of automated machine learning (AutoML) using the MIMIC-IV-ED database to enhance decision-making in emergency department (ED) triage. We developed a predictive model that utilizes triage data to forecast hospital admissions, aiming to support medical staff by providing an advanced decision-support system. The model, powered by H2O.ai’s AutoML platform, was trained on approximately 280,000 preprocessed records from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center collected between 2011 and 2019. The selected Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model demonstrated an AUC ROC of 0.8256, indicating its efficacy in predicting patient dispositions. Key variables such as acuity and waiting hours were identified as significant predictors, emphasizing the model’s capability to integrate critical triage metrics into its predictions. However, challenges related to the complexity and heterogeneity of medical data, privacy concerns, and the need for model interpretability were addressed through the incorporation of Explainable AI (XAI) techniques. These techniques ensure the transparency of the predictive processes, fostering trust and facilitating ethical AI use in clinical settings. Future work will focus on external validation and expanding the model to include a broader array of variables from diverse healthcare environments, enhancing the model’s utility and applicability in global emergency care contexts.

Keywords

• triage
• hospital admission
• prediction
• MIMIC-IV
• automated machine learning