Financial instability as a sustained export growth limiting factor of the Russian far east regions

Abstract

The paper analyses the export dynamics of the Russian Far East regions in the context of cyclical business activity. A multi-regression model with lag variables is formed during correlation-regression analysis, since a tendency for a lagging export reaction in response to fluctuations in financial instability indicators was revealed. The analysis showed that exports are influenced by factors of economic activity, fluctuations in real exchange rates, oil prices and levels of external debt relative to GDP. During the crisis, there was a short-term pattern of growth, but in the subsequent period, the decline in the output of exporters, the shortage of financial resources, the increase in the cost of materials and other costs led to a reduction in the sales of products for export. Financial instability is becoming the main source of financial risk for exporters, requiring regional government intervention and business support mechanisms.