Predicted long-term antibody persistence for a tick-borne encephalitis vaccine: results from a modeling study beyond 10 years after a booster dose following different primary vaccination schedules

Abstract

In tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)-endemic regions, long-term vaccination programs are efficient in preventing the disease. A booster dose of a polygeline-free inactivated TBE vaccine (Encepur Adults, GSK), administered approximately 3 years post-primary vaccination according to 1 of 3 licensed vaccination schedules in adults and adolescents, resulted in antibody persistence for 10 years post-boosting. We used different power-law models (PLMs) to predict long-term persistence of anti-TBE virus neutralization test (NT) antibody titers over a period of 20 years post-booster dose, based on individual antibody NT titers measured for 10 years post-booster vaccination. The PLMs were fitted on pooled data for all vaccine schedules. A mean NT titer of 261 (95% prediction interval: 22–3096), considerably above the accepted threshold of protection (NT titers ≥10), was predicted 20 years post-booster vaccination with TBE vaccine. Our modeled data suggest that the intervals of booster doses could be increased without compromising protection against TBE.

Keywords

• tick-borne encephalitis
• polygeline-free inactivated tbe vaccine
• antibody persistence
• statistical model
• power-law model