Adaptability Evaluation of Power Grid Planning Scheme for Novel Power System Considering Multiple Decision Psychology

Abstract

With a substantial fraction of renewable energy integrated into the electrical grid, the new power system urgently requires grid planning scheme displaying adaptability to different energy types and their volatility. Considering the indeterminacy of renewable energy generation output and the different attitudes of decision-makers towards its risk, this paper proposes an adaptability assessment methodology for power grid planning schemes considering multiple decision psychology. First, an evaluation indicator framework is established based on the adaptive requirements of the grid planning for novel power system, and the weights of indicators are calculated based on an improved AHP-CRITIC combination weighting method. Second, improved cumulative prospect theory (ICPT) is adopted to improve to the calculation method of the distance between the evaluation program and the positive and negative ideal programs in the GRA and TOPSIS, which effectively characterize the different decision-making psychologies, and a combination evaluation model is constructed based on a cooperative game (CG), namely, an adaptability evaluation model of grid planning schemes for novel power systems based on GRA-TOPSIS integrating CG and ICPT. Finally, the proposed model serves to evaluate grid planning schemes of three regions in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. The evaluation results show that the adaptability of the schemes varies under different decision-making psychologies, and under the risk-aggressive and loss-sensitive decision-making psychologies, grid planning scheme of Region 1 with the greatest accommodation capacity of renewable energy is preferable.

Keywords

• novel power system
• adaptability evaluation
• grid planning
• decision psychology
• combination evaluation