Developing a COVID-19 Mortality Prediction (CoMPred) Indicator for ICU Diabetic Patients Treated with Tocilizumab in Saudi Arabia: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts have been made to underline its discourse and identify factors contributing to its severe forms. Clinically, many physicians depended on subjective criteria to determine its severe forms, which varied significantly between practices. However, they did not rely on objective laboratory findings. This study aimed to present a novel and objective laboratory-based indicator to predict mortality among COVID-19 patients. The study included 249 COVID-19 patients who were admitted to the ICU, of which 80 did not survive. The COVID-19 Mortality Prediction (CoMPred) indicator was developed by including the age and the following lab investigations: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), D-Dimer, PT, aPTT, ESR, CRP, and urea levels. A CoMPred score of 7.5 or higher carries a sensitivity of 81.10% in predicting mortality, i.e., a patient with a CoMPred score of 7.5 or higher has an 81.10% chance of dying. The CoMPred indicator score directly correlates with mortality, i.e., the higher the score, the higher the possibility of the patient dying. In conclusion, the CoMPred indicator is an objective tool that is affordable and widely available, will assist physicians, and limit the burden on clinical decisions on an unpredicted course of COVID-19 in patients.

Keywords

• CoMPred
• COVID-19
• death
• diabetes mellitus
• ICU
• mortality prediction