Continuous Loss of Global Lake Ice Across Two Centuries Revealed by Satellite Observations and Numerical Modeling

Abstract

Abstract Lake ice loss has been detected worldwide due to recent climate warming, yet spatially and temporally detailed information on the changes in global ice phenology does not exist. Here, we build a global lake ice phenology database comprising three lake ice phenologies—freeze‐up, break‐up, and ice duration—for each year across two centuries (1900–2099). The timing of all three phenologies experienced mild but statistically significant warming trends in the 20th century; continued warming trends were detected in ∼60% of the lakes from 2001 to 2020. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), future global median ice duration would be shortened by 49.9 days by the end of the 21st century; such change can be substantially reduced under lower emission scenarios. We revealed continuous loss of global lake ice during the observed period, our generated database provides critical baseline information to evaluate the consequences of historical and future lake ice changes.

Keywords

• lake ice phenology
• climate warming
• lake‐specific model
• remote sensing
• air temperature