Analysis of the long-term temperature trends in the Kofarnihon river basin in Tajikistan

Abstract

In this study, the trend and magnitudinal changes of monthly and annual temperature was determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall, and Sen’s slope tests in the Kofarnihon River Basin. Also, Pettitt’s test was used to analyze the changes during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 time periods. The study revealed that the seasonal temperature trend decreased in winter and significantly increased in spring. The mean annual temperature trend at all six climate stations exhibited an increasing trend during 1951–2012-time period. The decadal temperature trend at all stations varied from 0.36 °C/decade at Isambay station and –0.18 °C/decade at Anzob station. Abrupt change points in air temperature occurred around the 1970s in the low altitude areas and in the high altitude areas occurred around 2000.

Keywords

• temperature
• trends
• slope
• climate change
• kofarnihon river basin.