Cancer Medicine (Apr 2018)

Comparison and validation of the prognostic value of preoperative systemic immune cells in hepatocellular carcinoma after curative hepatectomy

  • Rui Liao,
  • Cong Peng,
  • Ming Li,
  • De‐Wei Li,
  • Ning Jiang,
  • Pei‐Zhi Li,
  • Xiong Ding,
  • Qiao Wu,
  • Cheng‐You Du,
  • Jian‐Ping Gong

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.1424
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 7, no. 4
pp. 1170 – 1182

Abstract

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Abstract In this study, we aimed to compare and validate the prognostic abilities of preoperative systemic immune cells in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy. We developed two nomograms to predict the postoperative recurrence‐free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after comparisons of the systemic immune cell prognostic scores. The two nomograms were constructed based on 305 patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomograms were compared with six commonly used staging systems for HCC. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an internal validation cohort of 142 patients and an external validation cohort of 169 patients. Necroinflammatory activity in peritumoral liver tissues in the primary cohort was evaluated by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. Neutrophil, monocyte, and lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) had a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) value at both RFS (AUC = 0.603) and OS (AUC = 0.726) compared to that of other systemic immune cell prognostic scores. The independent predictors of RFS or OS, including α‐fetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, tumor number, microvascular invasion, and NMLR, were incorporated into the two nomograms. In the primary cohort, the C‐indexes of the RFS and OS nomograms were 0.705 and 0.797, respectively. The ROC analyses showed that the two nomograms had larger AUC values (0.664 for RFS and 0.821 for OS) than those of the American Joint Commission on Cancer seventh edition, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Japan Integrated Staging Score, Okuda stage, and the Vauthey's system. These results were verified by internal and external validations. The nomogram‐predicted probability of RFS was associated with peritumoral necroinflammatory activity scores (r = 0.304, P < 0.001). The proposed nomograms had accurate prognostic prediction in patients with HCC after curative hepatectomy.

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