«Consumer migration» phenomenon as a result of global migration explosion: catastrophe theory modelling

Abstract

The article analyzes reasons of spasmodic migrants’ mass exodus from Africa and the Middle East in 2015. In order to describe this phenomenon authors propose to use catastrophe theory toolkit, that would help to describe explained phenomenon using particularly "casp catastrophe". Two basic factors were identified in order to develop the model – push factor (conflicts, instability, poverty in the Middle East) and pull factor (western values and aspirations for political and economic freedom and hope for better opportunity). Model’s output variable is linked with migration flows intensity to the EU. "Consumer migration» phenomenon implies that migrants are aimed at not only saving their lives, but also at their well-being upgrade in Western Europe countries. Relevant statistical indicators in various EU countries and the Middle East make it possible to formulate a hybrid model of contemporary global migration explosion, which is a combination of a gravity model and "casp catastrophe" model. At the same time whileperceiving migration drivers and factors, however, we shall admit that migrants’ desire to upgradetheir living conditions doesn’t contradict the 1951Refugee Convention.