A Bayesian Control Chart for Monitoring Process Variance

Abstract

Automation in the service industry is emerging as a new wave of industrial revolution. Standardization and consistency of service quality is an important part of the automation process. The quality control methods widely used in the manufacturing industry can provide service quality measurement and service process monitoring. In particular, the control chart as an online monitoring technique can be used to quickly detect whether a service process is out of control. However, the control of the service process is more difficult than that of the manufacturing process because the variability of the service process comes from widespread and complex factors. First of all, the distribution of the service process is usually non-normal or unknown. Moreover, the skewness of the process distribution can be time-varying, even if the process is in control. In this study, a Bayesian procedure is applied to construct a Phase II exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart for monitoring the variance of a distribution-free process. We explore the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic, which is suitable for monitoring the time-varying process distribution. The average run lengths (ARLs) of the proposed Bayesian EWMA variance chart are calculated, and they show that the chart performs well. The simulation studies for a normal process, exponential process, and the mixed process of normal and exponential distribution prove that our chart can quickly detect any shift of a process variance. Finally, a numerical example of bank service time is used to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian EWMA variance chart and confirm the performance of the process control.

Keywords

• average run length
• beta-binomial distribution
• service automation
• time-varying process distribution
• variance control chart