Climate Change and Hazards Risk Management, Community Capability, Resilience and Vulnerability in Swat, Shangla, and Kohistan District, Northwest Pakistan

Abstract

The study area comprises of humid and undifferentiated highland climates having total precipitation of 52inches (1320mm) and fluctuation of -5.3inches or -134millimeters (1961-2014). The study area was a highly humid climate in 1961, while recently it seems on the porch of sub-humid ambiance. The annual trends show depletion in the precipitation concentration since 1980. Based on temperature, there are three types of temperature zones that are cool, cold and highlands. The maximum temperature recorded in June as well as July and reversed in January. The average temperature indicates a rise of 0.20C, which is higher during winters and converse in summers. The swell in the degree of hotness enhanced the water anxiety as well as the recoil of glaciers and increased the rate of natural hazards. The hydrology of the area is highly susceptible to the alteration in weather conditions in terms of glaciers retreat; fall in river flow, sub-surface water, natural disasters, desiccation of ponds and water springs. The yearly runoff of the Swat river reveals a decrease of -0.03 m3/Sec, while it is 12.4 m3/Sec in the Ghurband river (Shangla). It is concluded, that the yearly inclination of water runoff is contrary to mean temperature and directly proportional to precipitation. The most frequent natural disasters of the study area comprise of earthquakes, floods, landslides, snow avalanches, forest fires and epidemics (hepatitis, stomachache, and cholera). These hazards can be minimized using well planning (top to bottom) for risk management, preparedness, vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies at the community level in the area.

Keywords

• climate change
• surface flow
• hazards
• community perception
• planning
• mitigation