The effect of COVID-19 on cancer incidences in the U.S

Abstract

Fundamental data analysis assists in the evaluation of critical questions to discern essential facts and elicit formerly invisible evidence. In this article, we provide clarity into a subtle phenomenon observed in cancer incidences throughout the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed the cancer incidence data from the American Cancer Society [1]. We partitioned the data into three groups: the pre-COVID-19 years (2017, 2018), during the COVID-19 years (2019, 2020, 2021), and the post-COVID-19 years (2022, 2023). In a novel manner, we applied principal components analysis (PCA), computed the angles between the cancer incidence vectors, and then added lognormal probability concepts in our analysis. Our analytic results revealed that the cancer incidences shifted within each era (pre, during, and post), with a meaningful change in the cancer incidences occurring in 2020, the peak of the COVID-19 era. We defined, computed, and interpreted the exceedance probability for a cancer type to have 1000 incidences in a future year among the breast, cervical, colorectal, uterine corpus, leukemia, lung & bronchus, melanoma, Hodgkin's lymphoma, prostate, and urinary cancers. We also defined, estimated, and illustrated indices for other cancer diagnoses from the vantage point of breast cancer in pre, during, and post-COVID-19 eras. The angle vectors post the COVID-19 were 72% less than pre-pandemic and 28% less than during the pandemic. The movement of cancer vectors was dynamic between these eras, and movement greatly differed by type of cancer. A trend chart of cervical cancer showed statistical anomalies in the years 2019 and 2021. Based on our findings, a few future research directions are pointed out.

Keywords

• Principal components analysis
• Pre
• During
• And post COVID-19 indices
• Most likely cancer incidence
• Radar plot