Bias‐Adjustment Methods for Future Subdaily Precipitation Extremes Consistent Across Durations

Abstract

Abstract Model output from climate projections often requires bias‐adjustment to compensate for systematic model errors. A bias‐adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity is proposed that preserves the scaling equation for different accumulation levels from hourly to daily, using intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) modeling. A validation is performed within a pseudo‐reality setting, based on hourly precipitation from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO‐CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling‐based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, an optimal method is identified, and, analytical quantile mapping methods must be avoided due to three identified problems. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity obeys the above‐mentioned scale‐invariance property, which is consistent with observed extreme intensities. We thus show that IDF modeling provides added value in the context of bias‐adjustment, and, that the particular IDF model proposed balances well between accuracy and the preservation of desired properties such as scale invariance and consistency among rainfall durations.

Keywords

• bias correction
• subdaily precipitation extremes
• IDF‐models
• climate change
• regional climate models
• climate model ensemble