Solar Photovoltaic Investment Changes across China Regions Using a Spatial Shift-Share Analysis

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) has become the fastest-growing new energy in China and one of the main contributors to China’s clean energy transition. From 2013 to 2019, China’s solar PV installed capacity grew from 15,890 MW to 204,180 MW, increasing by 11.85 times. To explore solar PV investment changes across China regions, we use spatial shift-share analysis model to decompose solar PV investment changes from 2013 to 2019 into four components: national energy investment growth effect (NEG), national energy investment structure effect (NES), neighbor–nation solar PV investment competitive effect (NNC), and region–neighbor solar PV investment competitive effect (RNC). Based on the decomposition results, we find that the value of NNC of most western provinces is negative for the entire period, while the NNC of most central and eastern provinces is in the middle and lower range. There is little difference in RNC among these regions. While comparing the influence caused by the four effects, NNC and RNC play dominant roles in solar PV investment changes in eastern and central provinces, which means NEG and NES have relatively small impacts. By contrast, NEG and NES affect the solar PV investment changes at a larger scale in most western provinces. Comparing the NNC and RNC, we find that RNC played a prominent role in the eastern and central regions, while NNC played a dominant role in the west.

Keywords

• solar photovoltaic investment
• spatial shift-share analysis
• regional analysis