Mortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox

Abstract

Objective To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality. Methods Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates. Results During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the “SARS-CoV-2 paradox.” We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data. Conclusions Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.