A logical operating model for the assessment of the forced sale value in the judicial procedures [Un modello logico -operativo per la stima del forced sale value nelle procedure giudiziarie]

Abstract

With reference to real estate auctions activated in the context of judicial procedures (bankruptcy and/or executive), this work develops and tests a logical operating model for the assessment of the forced sale value. This is determined from the market value of the asset by applying an appropriate discount (or premium) coefficient based on the potential risks of the urban and market context in which the property is located. The estimated coefficient allows for determination of the auction value of the property to be sold which, due to yields obtainable and transaction risk, is admissible in terms of buyer convenience. The model proposed and tested here borrows Ellwood’s logic as applied to the real estate sector, integrated through the investment risk assessment approach of Real Options Analysis. Applied in the one hundred and forty cities where the Italian courts are based, the model allowed for the construction of an abacus of discount (or premium) coefficients, differentiated in terms of the cities analyzed, the various areas of each city and the intended residential or commercial use. Putting in practice the application highlighted the validity of the model, capable of contextualizing the discount (or premium) coefficient needed to determine forced sale value based on the risk factors of the market areas considered. Practical implications of the abacus include the possibility of limiting the times of auctioning procedures, as well as generating a map of the areas of greatest interest for potential investors, where the uncertainty, typical of this specific real estate sub-market, is overcome by the knowledge of the limit values of investment convenience for the area under analysis.

Keywords

• forced sale value
• real estate auctions
• ellwood
• real options analysis
• ewma
• market value