Simulation of beech stand dynamics under climate change conditions in the Carpathians and Roztocze using FORKOME model

Abstract

This paper presents a computer prognostic modeling of the beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests dynamics in the Carpathians and Roztocze using FORKOME model. The study was conducted in the Polish Bieszczady (Stuposiany forestry), Ukrainian Beskidy (Nadsanski Landscape Park) and in Polish Roztocze (Roztoczanski National Park) regions. The aim of this study was to carry out prognosis of possible dynamics of beech stands in Carpathians and Roztocze using computer model. For this purpose, a computer prognostic FORKOME model has been applied. Different scenario of changes were included: a control scenario, warm dry, warm humid, cold dry and cold humid. The simulations were realized for a time period covering next 500 years. Using the control scenario, FORKOME model predicted that for the next 500 years beech stands will dominate in terms of biomass and number of trees. The results have confirmed the periodic tendency of changes in stands consisting of biomass participation exchange between beech and fir. The obtained results are important issues for forest management and prognosis.

Keywords

• prognosis
• computer
• modelling
• forest
• temperature
• precipitation