The Catastrophe of Electric Vehicle Sales

Abstract

Electric vehicles have undergone a recent faddy trend in the United States and Europe, and several recent publications trumpet the continued rise of electric vehicles citing steadily-climbing monthly vehicle sales. The broad purpose of this study is to examine this optimism with some degree of mathematical rigor. Specifically, the methodology will use catastrophe theory to explore the possibility of a sudden, seemingly-unexplainable crash in vehicle sales. The study begins by defining optimal system equations that well-model the available sales data. Next, these optimal models are used to investigate the potential response to a slow dynamic acting on the relatively faster dynamic of the optimal system equations. Catastrophe theory indicates a potential sudden crash in sales when a slow dynamic is at-work. It is noteworthy that the prediction can be made even while sales are increasing.

Keywords

• electric vehicles
• gas prices
• catastrophe theory
• least squares
• extrapolation
• equilibrium point
• jump theory