A tale of two countries: Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of monkeypox disease in Germany and Nigeria

Abstract

The Monkeypox (Mpox) virus started developing as potentially fatal in Spring 2022. Mpox is a zoonotic disease that can spread between animals and people. While the cases in Nigeria are on the rise, Germany has become one of Europe’s most impacted nations. Mathematical modeling is useful for monitoring, managing, and predicting infectious disease epidemics. This study incorporates the transmission rate of human-to-animal and animal-to-animal in a compartmental mathematical model of Mpox to capture the current trend in transmission for wildlife and human preservation. Parameters were estimated while the model was fitted to reported case data of Mpox from Nigeria and Germany to capture the trend in Europe and West Africa. Analyses such as optimal control, sensitivity, and cost-effectiveness were carried out. The results show that the best strategy to combat the spread of the virus is through changing behavior and personal hygiene among humans.

Keywords

• Mathematical model
• Case data
• Mpox
• Optimal control
• Model fitting
• Cost-effectiveness