Analysis and estimation of India's foreign exchange reserves using soft computing techniques

Abstract

We used a back propagation type of artificial neural networks (ANN) methodology to forecast the year-wise estimated foreign exchange reserves of India based on past data.The results indicate that in a particular financial year, if we know the values of foreign direct investments, the total expenditure for all the plan schemes and special plan schemes of the Department of Commerce, the export to import ratio, the average import duty rate, and the GDP of India, then the likely value of the foreign exchange reserves for that year can be estimated using our ANN-based method.

Keywords

• National economic planning
• Artificial neural networks
• Soft computing
• Foreign exchange reserves