Risk Representations and Confrontational Actions in the Arctic

Abstract

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes and gaining geopolitical attention. The effects of climate change in the region lead to both potential and hopes for new resources, new or shorter transit routes, and other opportunities. Most Arctic coastal states have come forward with interest articulations. Some coastal states also see their national security and sovereignty at risk. While the region has seen a significant level of cooperation in some areas in the past, current developments seem to motivate both stronger risk representations and confrontational actions. Among the coastal states, particularly Canada, the United States, and Russia express increasing points of contention and articulate risk representations, and they have engaged in military and hard-security activities that make actual conflict more likely. With existing conflicts of interests, a high uncertainty regarding future developments, and even non-Arctic states like China claiming Arctic interests, conflict potential may be on the rise. The article hones in on current developments regarding hard security in the Arctic. The empirical section discusses risk representation, including the role of spatial constructions and national identity, and the confrontational actions already taken. It concludes with implications regarding conflict potential in the Arctic.