Mathematical model of criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the state of railway transport infrastructure

Abstract

Today, in order to ensure the safety of cargo and passenger transportation on railways, there is no procedure for keeping records on the state of railway transport infrastructures, control of industrial enterprises and organizations over the quality of repairs, conducting examinations in ensuring traffic safety and eliminating identified shortcomings. This, in turn, is one of the main factors leading to the occurrence of accidents and accidents related to rail transport. In this article, the procedure for solving the problem of introducing inspections by inspection based on the collection of points determined based on the results of monitoring of violations carried out on the basis of criteria that assess the risk levels at which there is a probability of committing by business entities engaged in railway transport activities is considered. The mathematical model of mesons for a comprehensive assessment of the state of railway transport infrastructure, presented in the regulation on the procedure for organizing and conducting a commission monthly examination of railway transport infrastructures developed in order to ensure the safety of train traffic, is created on the basis of probability theory and the laws of normal distribution. The percentage, mathematical expectation, variance and mean quadratic limitations of the probability of occurrence of the signs of an offense in each of the points intervals are clarified.