A personalized nomogram for predicting 3-year overall survival of patients with uterine carcinosarcoma in a tertiary care hospital in Southern Thailand

Abstract

Objective To develop a nomogram for predicting 3-year overall survival (OS) and outcomes of surgically staged patients with uterine carcinosarcomas (UCS). Methods This retrospective study analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics, treatment data, and oncological outcomes of 69 patients diagnosed with UCS between January 2002 and September 2018. Significant prognostic factors for OS were identified and integrated to develop a nomogram. Concordance probability (CP) was used as a precision measure. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples to correct overfitting. Results The median follow-up time was 19.4 months (range, 0.77–106.13 months). The 3-year OS was 41.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29.9–58.3%). The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent factors for OS. The CP of the nomogram integrating with body mass index (BMI), FIGO stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70–0.75). In addition, the calibration curves for the probability of 3-year OS demonstrated good agreement between the nomogram-predicted and observed data. Conclusion The established nomogram using BMI, FIGO stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy accurately predicted the 3-year OS of patients with UCS. The nomogram was useful for patient counselling and deciding on follow-up strategies.

Keywords

• uterine cancer
• carcinosarcoma
• nomogram
• survival