Severe Convection at Burgas Airport: Case Study 17 September 2022

Abstract

Convection monitoring and forecasting are crucial for air traffic management as they can lead to the development of intense thunderstorms and hazards such as severe turbulence and icing, lightning activity, microbursts and hail that affect aviation safety. The airport of Burgas is located in southeast Bulgaria on the Black Sea coast and occurrences of intense thunderstorms are mainly observed in the warm season between May and September. This work presents an analysis of severe convection over southeast Bulgaria on 17 September 2022. In the late afternoon, a gust front was formed that reached the Burgas airport with a wind speed exceeding 45 m/s, the record for the past 50 years, damaging the instrument landing system of the airport. To analyse the severe weather conditions, we combine state-of-the-art observations from satellite and radar with the upper-air sounding and surface. The studied period was dominated by the presence of a very unstable air mass over southeast Bulgaria ahead of the atmospheric front. As convection developed and moved east towards Burgas, it had four characteristics of severe deep convection, including gravitational waves at the overshooting cloud top, a cold U-shape, a flanking line and a cloud top temperature below −70 °C. The positive integrated water vapour (IWV) rate of change preceded the lightning activity peak by 30 min. Analysis of integrated vapour transport (IVT) gives higher values by a factor of two compared to climatology associated with the atmospheric river covering the eastern Mediterranean sea.

Keywords

• severe convection
• GNSS integrated water vapour
• integrated vapour transport