Accuracy of physician and nurse predictions for 28-day prognosis in ICU: a single center prospective study

Abstract

Abstract The proportion of correctly predicted prognoses and factors associated with prediction accuracy are unknown. The objective of this study was to explore the accuracy of physician and nurse predictions of 28-day mortality in the ICU. This was a prospective observational single-center study. All medical staff in the ICU have access to patient data, can communicate with patients or clients, and can independently predict the prognosis of patients within 24 h of patient admission. The only question of the questionnaire survey was: What is the patient’s outcome on day 28 (alive or death)? There were 2155 questionnaires completed by 18 physicians and 1916 submitted by 15 nurses. In the 312 patients included, the 28-day mortality rates were predicted by physicians and nurses. The overall proportion of correct prognosis prediction was 90.1% for physicians and 64.4% for nurses (P = 0.000). There was no significant difference in the overall correct proportion and average correct proportion among physicians with different seniority levels. The overall correct proportion and average correct proportion increased among nurses with seniority. Physicians in the ICU can moderately predict 28-day mortality in critically ill patients. Nurses with a seniority of less than 10 years in ICU cannot accurately predict 28-day mortality in critically ill patients. However, the accuracy of nurses’ prediction of patients’ 28-day prognosis increased with their seniority in the ICU.