Spatiotemporal Distributions of Foot and Mouth Disease Between 2010-2019 in Turkey

Abstract

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious diseases of livestock with a significant economic impact affecting most countries in the world over the years. In Turkey, FMD is endemic, but there have not been national studies conducted to analyze spatiotemporal pattern of FMD yet. This study was carried out to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Turkey from January 2010 to December 2019, to guide the eradication following development of control programs against the disease. Thematic maps were produced to determine FMD sensitive regions and Box-Jenkins time series approach was used to analyze the temporal pattern of FMD. Between these dates, 6698 outbreaks and 246341 cases were reported in Turkey, FMD was recorded multiple times in 96.3% of the provinces (n = 78), and the average incidence of FMD outbreaks at the provincial level was calculated as 8.27/province year. As result of the spatial pattern of FMD, East and Central Anatolia were determined as the regions where the disease was observed intensely. The time series plot of the data showed a general not very regular trend although there was a downward trend with irregular variations. Although, there was no seasonal effect detected by the decomposition of time series, seasonal peaks in the outbreaks were observed, in the spring (n = 2087, 31.16%). In conclusion, the evaluation of spatial and temporal pattern based on FMD outbreaks that are common in Turkey will contribute to eradication of the disease.

Keywords

• foot and mouth disease
• geographic information system (gis)
• outbreak
• spatial
• temporal