Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach

Abstract

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the basic reproductive number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters

Keywords

• zika virus
• basic reproductive number
• approximate bayesian computation
• public health
• transmission dynamics
• epidemic models
• vector-borne diseases