Journal of King Saud University: Science (Dec 2024)
Earthquake risk assessment for Kuwait City, Kuwait
Abstract
Estimating the expected losses from a seismic disaster, whether economic or human is considered one of the most important priorities for urban development in countries, especially those with continually expanding urban areas, high-rise buildings, and skyscraper construction as is the case in Kuwait City. It is necessary to conduct an earthquake risk assessment study due to Kuwait’s geographical location which makes it close to the most important global seismic belt, the Zagros Seismic Belt, and its proximity to local seismic sources. To conduct such a study, three inputs including seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modules were incorporated, considering the inputs’ uncertainty. To assess the seismic hazard module, a unified earthquake catalog was compiled, a seismotectonic model of 27 seismic sources was designed, the recurrence parameters of seismicity and the strongest predictable earthquake were calculated for each source, and the unified hazard spectrums were obtained. Earthquake scenarios were generated to create a seismic hazard module. The exposure module is performed using data from the Kuwaiti Public Authority for Civil Information including coordinates of 33,066 facilities and buildings, area, height, shape, and type of buildings, the materials used in their construction, their occupancy, and replacement cost. The vulnerability module was implemented using mean damage ratio curves by choosing the most appropriate equations that describe the condition of buildings in Kuwait, the vast majority of which are modern multi-story concrete buildings. The final results including the economic losses of the exposures were calculated using probabilistic metrics (predicted annual losses, loss exceedance curve, and probable maximum loss). The results showed that the annual average loss is $12,793,319.52 and that seismic source No.27 to the north of Kuwait has a significant value to the losses, but the frequent occurrence of losses from seismic source No.15 to the east of Kuwait, in the Zagros region, gave the most danger to Kuwait. Seismic risk results can be used to create emergency response scenarios and risk mitigation strategies.
