Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Xinting Lu; Hilary Bambrick; Francesca D. Frentiu; Xiaodong Huang; Callan Davis; Zhongjie Li; Weizhong Yang; Gregor J. Devine; Wenbiao Hu

doi:10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x

Parasites & Vectors (Sep 2022)

Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Xinting Lu,
Hilary Bambrick,
Francesca D. Frentiu,
Xiaodong Huang,
Callan Davis,
Zhongjie Li,
Weizhong Yang,
Gregor J. Devine,
Wenbiao Hu

Affiliations

Xinting Lu: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology
Hilary Bambrick: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology
Francesca D. Frentiu: Centre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology
Xiaodong Huang: Centre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology
Callan Davis: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology
Zhongjie Li: Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention
Weizhong Yang: Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention
Gregor J. Devine: Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute
Wenbiao Hu: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 15, no. 1
pp. 1 – 11

Abstract

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Abstract Background Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world. Methods A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed. Results The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases. Conclusions Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research. Graphical Abstract

Published in Parasites & Vectors

ISSN: 1756-3305 (Online)
Publisher: BMC
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/

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