Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Sep 2016)

Tourism-climate conditions and their future development in the Polish-Saxon border area

  • Bartłomiej Miszuk,
  • Irena Otop,
  • Marzenna Strońska,
  • Susann Schwarzak,
  • Michaela Surke

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0700
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 25, no. 4
pp. 421 – 434

Abstract

Read online

Current climate conditions and future changes, including impacts on the thermal bioclimate and tourism in the German-Polish border region, was one of the tasks investigated within the EU KLAPS project (Climate Change, Air Pollution and Critical Load of Eco Systems in the Polish-Saxon Border Region). The aim of this paper is to present the thermal bioclimate conditions and the influence of weather and climate on tourist issues in the KLAPS project domain, considering various types of recreation for both current and future periods. The base for the analysis was climatic data from the 1971–2010 period from German (DWD) and Polish (IMGW-PIB) meteorological stations, concerning both daily and 12 UTC data. The climate projections were carried out under various emission scenarios (SRES A1B, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) within MPI-ESM-LR and ECHAM5 GCMs. Future conditions were analyzed for two periods: 2021–2050 (near future) and 2071–2100 (far future) and compared with the reference period 1971–2000. The thermal bioclimate was assessed with the use of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The Weather Suitability Index (WSI) and Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS) were used for tourism-climate approaches. In the lowlands of the study area, the most convenient weather conditions for tourism and recreation are observed during the spring and autumn seasons (except intensive recreational activities). In the highest mountains, they are noticed in summer and from March to April due to the useful conditions for skiing. On the basis of CTIS, weather limitations for tourism are related mostly to sunshine and snow conditions for skiing in the mountain forelands. In the highest parts of the mountains, the most significant limitations are related to cold stress, precipitation, wind and sunshine conditions. Under A1B and RCP8.5 scenarios, an increase in the usefulness of weather conditions for most tourist activities in the cold season (November-April) are projected for the lower located areas, while a distinct decrease is simulated in summer due to a higher heat stress frequency. In the highest parts of the mountains, an improvement of climate conditions for tourism in the warm season is expected. In the case of winter, worse conditions might be noticed due to an increase in air temperature resulting in a shorter period of snow cover.

Keywords